Image: Henry Kissinger
In a thought-provoking op-ed article published in the Washington Post on March 5th, 2014, Henry Kissinger discussed the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. While this article predates the annexation of Crimea, it provides valuable historical context and sheds light on the complexities of the situation. Kissinger, a significant figure in American history, emphasized the importance of considering the endgame in any conflict, rather than fixating solely on its beginning.
Contents
The Test of Policy
Kissinger commenced his article with a sobering statement: “In my life, I have seen four wars begun with great enthusiasm and public support, all of which we did not know how to end, and from three of which we withdrew unilaterally.” This frank admission highlights the crucial aspect of any policy or military intervention—the test of how it ends, not how it commences.
The Cold Hard Truth
Wars are often greeted with excitement and fervor. Financial aid, military support, and public outrage flow freely in the initial stages. However, as time passes, enthusiasm wanes, and the true costs of war become apparent. Kissinger warns against a country that is willing to withstand a prolonged siege rather than admit defeat to its own people. He advocates for a resolution that aligns with the Ukrainian resistance and ensures that Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine does not prevail.
The Ukrainian Choice
Kissinger unequivocally supports providing heavy weapons, including offensive weapons, to the Ukrainians who are willing to resist. It is the Ukrainians’ prerogative to decide the extent of their resistance, negotiate when appropriate, and make sacrifices. As allies, it is incumbent upon us to meet their requests promptly and on a significant scale. However, it is essential to remember that wars, with their devastating impact, can only have political solutions. Military victories alone are not sufficient.
The Importance of a Political Solution
To achieve lasting peace, a political solution is indispensable. Kissinger acknowledges the ongoing movement of heavy weapons to the Ukrainian battlefield. This arming of the Ukrainians is a reaction to Russian aggressions. However, the true measure of success lies in the Ukrainians’ ability to conduct a successful counter-offensive on a significant scale. This operation would entail not only defense but also the eviction of Russian forces through coordinated efforts across various military domains, including air power, tanks, drones, and infantry.
The Ukrainian Counter-Offensive
The Ukrainian counter-offensive is critical in determining the next phase of the conflict. If successful, it could result in a battlefield victory and potentially regain territory lost to Russia, including Crimea. The Ukrainians’ goal is to move closer to their 1991 borders, which aligns with our support for their aspirations. However, the extent to which they can achieve this remains uncertain. The Ukrainian counter-offensive, which may occur throughout the summer, fall, and into the winter, carries significant weight in shaping the path ahead.
Seeking Resolution
While the outcomes of this conflict remain unknown, it is essential to consider alternative scenarios. If the Ukrainian counter-offensive triumphs, Vladimir Putin may have to acknowledge defeat on the battlefield. Alternatively, he could attempt a different approach by announcing a full-scale mobilization and recalibrating his strategies. The willingness of the Ukrainians to negotiate territory and whether Crimea is included in the discussions adds additional complexity to the situation. These uncertainties, coupled with concerns about potential Russian escalation, including nuclear or chemical weapon usage, underscore the gravity of the conflict.
FAQs
Q: What are the key takeaways from Henry Kissinger’s article?
A: Kissinger emphasizes the importance of considering the endgame in conflicts, supporting the Ukrainians’ resistance, and advocating for a political solution to the conflict in Ukraine.
Q: What is the significance of the Ukrainian counter-offensive?
A: The success of the Ukrainian counter-offensive will influence the next phase of the conflict and potentially lead to the regained territory, including Crimea.
Q: What are the potential outcomes of the conflict?
A: The outcomes range from Putin acknowledging defeat to his attempting a different strategy, including potential negotiations over territory and the future of Crimea.
Conclusion
Henry Kissinger’s analysis provides valuable insights into the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. By considering the long-term implications and emphasizing the importance of political solutions, we can work towards achieving lasting peace in the region. The Ukrainian counter-offensive holds the potential to shape the course of the conflict, and it is our responsibility to support their aspirations. Let us strive for a resolution that upholds justice and ensures a better future for Ukraine.
Image: Techal
