The world is witnessing a remarkable shift as technology becomes more intertwined with our daily lives and the global reliance on fossil fuels diminishes. In this evolving landscape, batteries have emerged as a critical component. The market for lithium-ion batteries, the most widely used type, has grown exponentially since 2004, with an average annual growth rate of 21%. This growth is expected to accelerate further, thanks to the joint venture between Tesla and Panasonic and the establishment of the Gigafactory, a colossal lithium-ion battery production facility that will double current output.
As we ponder the future, an intriguing question arises: Could the entire planet be powered by batteries? To answer this, we must examine two key factors: the ability to make batteries lighter and more energy-dense, and our capacity to manufacture enough of them.
So, how much truth is there to Elon Musk’s claim that around 100 gigafactories would be needed to transition the entire world to sustainable energy? Let’s delve into the numbers.
To truly grasp the implications, let’s start by understanding the energy capacity of a gigawatt hour (gWh), our main unit of measurement. A single battery with 1 gWh of storage can power a 100-watt bulb continuously for a staggering 1,141 years. It could also enable a Tesla Model S 100D to travel to the moon and back eight times or power New York City at peak summer electricity usage for a mere 270 seconds.
By 2020, the Gigafactory in Nevada is projected to manufacture 35 gWh of battery cells annually, sufficient to support the production of half a million vehicles each year. However, when we consider that 72.1 million cars and 22.5 million commercial vehicles were produced worldwide last year, the scale of the challenge becomes apparent.
Assuming each car uses a battery similar to the Tesla Model 3, with an estimated capacity of around 65 kWh, we would require 134 gigafactories to produce 72.1 million Model 3s annually. And this calculation does not even account for the 22.5 million commercial vehicles produced each year.
While the idea of a Tesla Truck seems far-fetched given current battery densities, there is hope for the future. If battery technology continues to improve and we develop batteries with capacities like lithium-sulfur batteries, which could weigh as little as 6 tonnes, we could potentially replace the quarter of a million trucks being built in North America alone with batteries from another 20 gigafactories.
Replacing current automotive production alone would be an immense task that even Tesla cannot undertake single-handedly. Musk’s estimate of 100 gigafactories may be slightly off considering current production targets. Nonetheless, during the 2016 Tesla shareholder meeting, Musk stated that they could potentially triple the Gigafactory’s planned output if demand warranted it. If this holds true, 100 gigafactories would indeed be a realistic goal.
Tesla’s ambitions extend beyond just automotive production. They also aim to provide battery storage for the grid and homes. To achieve this, they have allocated the production of 50 gWh per year to complement the 35 gWh dedicated to cell production.
Now, let’s explore the requirements for the grid to achieve 100% renewable energy by 2050, as targeted by the European Renewable Energy Council. It is important to note that we do not need to produce all the necessary storage within a single year.
To support such a transition, huge amounts of battery storage will be needed. For example, if we consider wind power, which is expected to reach a capacity of 462 gigawatts, scaling it up based on the Hornsdale Wind Farm in Australia (supported by the world’s largest battery storage facility at 129 MWh) indicates a need for approximately 189.2 GWh of storage.
Other energy sources such as hydro, biomass, concentrated solar power, and geothermal require little to no battery storage due to their relative stability. Ocean energy, similar to wind, would require significant storage.
One case study is Tesla’s project in Hawaii, where a solar-powered microgrid was established. The project includes a 13 MW solar farm paired with a 52 MWh battery installation. Scaling up the storage capacity to support 962 GW of solar power would require a staggering 3,848 GWh of storage.
Adding the storage needs for wind (189.2 GWh) and ocean energy (26.6 GWh), Europe would require a total of 4,064 GWh of storage to achieve its renewable energy targets. Considering that Europe accounts for approximately 13.3% of global energy demand, we can estimate that the world would need around 30,556 GWh of battery storage.
This immense storage capacity would allow New York City to run at peak usage for 91 consecutive days without any additional power. However, manufacturing this storage would require 18.5 gigafactories over a span of 33 years, and the cost, based on current prices per kWh, would amount to a staggering $3.8 trillion.
These figures align with Tesla’s goal of building 10-20 gigafactories. With 18 gigafactories operating at their current production targets, Tesla could produce enough vehicles to surpass Ford’s market share with 9 million vehicles while also facilitating the transition to a 100% renewable grid over the next 33 years.
While Tesla strives for a greener future, Anker, an industry leader in mobile charging, is also making waves. They are currently hosting a competition where participants can win $2,000 and an Anker power pack by creating a one-minute video showcasing an awkward situation caused by a device running out of power. Anker’s power packs, like the 20,000 mAh battery, offer fast charging capabilities and provide ample power for multiple devices. As a travel companion, these power banks are indispensable and can be purchased for only $40 on Amazon.
In conclusion, as batteries become more advanced and efficient, they have the potential to transform our world. However, the road to a battery-powered planet is paved with challenges, including the need for improved technology, increased manufacturing capacity, and substantial investments. Whether the dream of a battery-powered future becomes a reality depends on our collective efforts and the ability to overcome these hurdles.
Check out MinutePhysics’ video on this topic for further insights. Also, don’t forget to participate in Anker’s competition for a chance to win their amazing power pack. Power up and join the revolution for a brighter, greener future!
